With just a month to go until the US presidential election on November 5th and the polls still predicting a tight race between Democratic party candidate Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump for the Republicans, allies and competitors around the world will be making plans for how the US' international trade policies may change depending on who wins.
The two candidates have been offering up very different visions for the future of America across numerous policy areas, and trade is no exception. So what are Ms Harris and Mr Trump's positions on this issue and what should current and potential traders be aware of when it comes to the possibility of new sanctions or tariffs?
Kamala Harris: A continuation of the Biden era?
As the current vice-president in the administration of Joe Biden, Ms Harris' approach to trade is not expected to be radically different from the current situation. Although Ms Harris has not made international trade a major campaign issue in the same way that Mr Trump has, she has spoken of the importance of working with the US' allies, which signals a continuation of the 'friendshoring' policy adopted by the country in recent years and a focus on multilateral trade agreements.
This is likely to mean trade with allies such as the EU, Canada and Mexico will be 'business as usual'.
However, commentators have noted Ms Harris is far from a free trade candidate. Like Mr Biden, she has shown little willingness to reverse tariffs placed on Chinese imports under the previous Trump administration. It is expected that a future Harris administration would seek to continue focusing on China, especially in key areas that may impact national security, such as semiconductors and other hi-tech goods, as well as policies to protect US manufacturers in the green energy sector.
One Australia-based think tank, the Lowy Institute, described Ms Harris' approach to trade as "better than the alternative, but not [by] much", while consultancy KPMG stated that if she is elected, importers should focus on "strengthening relationships with international partners and staying informed about changes in trade agreements that could affect supply chains".
Donald Trump: A return to trade wars?
By contrast, Mr Trump has been very vocal about his plans for trade, with the Republican candidate making a significant expansion of tariffs a key pillar of his platform. In recent speeches, he has described tariffs as a "beautiful word" when properly used and promised that "foreign nations will be worried about losing their jobs to America".
Specific policies include a flat 60 percent tariff on all imports from China and ten percent levies on products from elsewhere in the world. However, he has also floated measures such as a 100 percent tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico. In addition, there is the possibility of using trade policy to pressure allies such as the EU in other areas such as defense spending.
With the USMCA free trade agreement up for review in 2026, officials in Canada and Mexico expect any negotiations to be difficult, with a Trump administration likely to seek major concessions from its partners.
This signals an overall attitude to trade that would be much more aggressive than the already-confrontational approach seen in his first term. If implemented, this is likely to lead to tit-for-tat retaliation from other countries and the possibility of full-scale trade wars that affect a wide range of sectors.
